stock market thanksgiving meeks

Meeks’s Musings – A Stock Market Thanksgiving

Despite the nasty rhetoric and the confluence of some very weird events (even for these times), investors should be thankful for their bounty this year. U.S. stocks as measured by the performance of the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index are +25% before dividends through November 18 and a startling +110% from the COVID low in March 2020.

Paul Meeks Inflation Stock Market

Meeks’s Musings – Recent Inflation & Stock Market Situation

Although September brought an early Halloween scare to the market with the S&P 500 -5% for the month, stocks still were flat for the quarter and rose +15% (excluding dividends) for the first nine months of 2021. Not too shabby particularly since we had to shake off the collapse of Evergrande, China’s largest residential real estate developer.

stock market worries paul meeks graph

Paul Meeks – Stock Market & Economy Worries

The market is efficient. That is, available information is immediately baked into securities prices. When I was a young analyst, that was not necessarily the case. I knew stuff that you did not, and that was not fair. You would think that regulators closed that loophole.

Economic Inflation Issue US

Is this 1980? Pray it is Not.

In April 1980, which was at the end of President Jimmy Carter’s single (no surprise) term in office, inflation in the US peaked at 14.6%. Inflation is commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Think of it as the price of a basket of goods that most of us buy frequently. About a year and a half later, specifically in September 1981, President Ronald Reagan was still trying to tame inflation; and interest rates were sky high in response.